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China to add 6.65 mil mt/year new alumina capacity in 2017: Antaike

China is expected to add 6.65 million mt/year of new alumina capacity in 2017, chiefly in North China, Central China and Northwest China, in addition to the 79.25 million mt/year built national alumina capacity as of end-2016, state-run metals consultancy firm Beijing Antaike has forecast in its aluminum sector report on Thursday. 

Shandong Province in North China is expected to add 2 million mt/year new alumina capacity and Henan Province in Central China is to add 1 million mt/year new alumina capacity in 2017, the Antaike report showed. 

Shanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, both in Northwest China, are forecast to add new alumina capacity of 2.6 million mt/year and 500,000 mt/year, respectively, in 2017, the agency figures showed. 

China is also expected to add an extra 5.7 million mt/year new alumina output capacity in 2018, with 2 million mt/year in Shandong, 1.8 million mt/year in Shanxi, 300,000 mt/year in Chongqing City in Sichuan Province, and 1.6 million mt/year in Guizhou Province in Southwest China, according to Antaike. 

Meanwhile, the agency has forecast China's national alumina demand in 2018 to hit 75.16 million mt, up 5.5% year from the estimated demand of 71.24 million mt in 2017. The growing alumina demand forecast is due to the rising refined aluminum output in China. 

China's national refined aluminum output in 2016 hit 32.65 million mt, up 6% year on year, with compound output growth rate of 9.2% in the 2014-2016 period, figures from Antaike showed. 

The Beijing agency has forecast China's net alumina imports in 2018 to hit 4 million mt, up 11% from an estimated 3.6 million mt imports in 2017. 

China's national alumina output in 2018 is expected to be 72.5 million mt, up 6.9% from an estimated 67.8 million mt output in 2017. 

The agency has forecast China's alumina supply in 2018 to be 76.5 million mt, up 7% from estimated 71.4 million mt in 2017. 

The country's alumina surplus in 2018 is expected to be 1.34 million mt, widening from an estimated surplus of 160,000 mt for 2017, the Antaike figures showed. 

Due to surging raw material costs, Chinese domestic alumina production costs (excluding tax) as of end-2016 averaged Yuan 2,060/mt ($299/mt), up 8.9% year on year, but stable from end-2014, the agency figures showed.


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